I’ll get the bad news out of the way first. Maine, you disappoint me.
I’ve been to your state. Some of the nicest people live within your borders. You’re surrounded by some of the world’s finest natural beauty. And you brew some of the finest beers in the country.
But why? Why do you believe that you have the right to usurp the legislative process with a show of hands? Why do you think issues that affect the lives and rights of a minority of your residents, should be decided by a simple majority? Why do you believe a homosexual couple entering in to a committed monogamous relationship should be viewed as anything different than your own heterosexual marriage? And why do you believe that you should decide that for them?
I don’t understand, I really don’t. I just know that when you put the rights of the minority in the hands of the majority, it rarely turns out well. I’m going to use the old worn-out examples that come into my mind: putting slavery to a state-by-state popular vote. Putting a woman’s right to the ballot to a state-by-state popular vote. Putting the Civil Rights Act to a state-by-state popular vote. Putting the Americans With Disabilities Act to a state-by-state popular vote. It’s ludicrous.
I feel like I’m hitting my head against a wall over and over and over and over and over and over again. Thump thump thump. We do not live in a direct democracy, in which we the people vote on every single issue on the table. This is by design. Thump thump thump. The masses are fickle and so often and easily misinformed, and prone to the mob mentality. Our founders were supremely aware of this, and looked to strike a fine balance between tyranny of the few, and tyranny of the masses, between excessive authority, and excessive democracy. Thump thump thump. This is why we live in a representative democracy. Majority rule, minority rights. We elect those who best represent us to a higher deliberative body, which balances the interests of all people involved, including those who believe and act differently than ourselves. And also those who would have sex with people different than we would choose. Thump thump thump.
And the moment they stop representing us, we vote them out. So Maine, vote your legislators out. Or, better yet, as you have so ardently proven to us, just cut out the middle man and make laws yourselves. That’s a great precedent to set for the rest of the country. Why not go to the polls every Tuesday and vote on a whole slate of new laws? You apparently know more than the idiots that you… elected… to office. Thump thump thump.
But I guess everyone’s an expert! Including myself. (Goodness, I hope you don’t think so.)
And this is precisely why I don’t trust the “experts” who are breathlessly declaring the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia to be “referendums” on President Obama. To link the subpar performance of one state’s governor (NJ) and the perceived inadequacy of the state Democratic Party in another (VA) and call it the one-year report card on the federal government is tenuous at best, and downright ahistorical at worst.
Ahistorical, you ask?
Well, to begin with, I can look at the two states I’ve lived in most. In 2002, a year that still makes Republicans giddy, the state of Wisconsin elected Jim Doyle, Democrat, to the governorship. They didn’t just elect him flat-out, they elected him over an incumbent Republican, in a year of Republican victories everywhere else. The same can be said for Minnesota. In 2006, the great Democratic comeback, the state of Minnesota re-elected incumbent Republican Tim Pawlenty. Why are these significant? Because it shows that governor’s races have more to do with state-level political dynamics than with federal politicking. In 2002, Jim Doyle ran against a perceived weak candidate in Scott McCallum (does anybody even remember him any more?), and won in a year dominated by Republicans on the federal level. And in 2006, Tim Pawlenty ran against a perceived flawed candidate in Mike Hatch (does anybody remember the “Republican whore” incident?) and won in a year dominated by Democrats on the federal level. You can’t convince me that New Jersey in 2009 is any different, and should therefore hold some special place as a bellwether for the performance of the federal government.
And then there’s Virginia. If the election of a Republican governor in Virginia in 2009, the year after a presidential election, is a referendum on a new Democratic president, then why, oh why, was the election of a Democratic governor in Virginia in 2001 not a referendum on a new Republican president? Could it be because, with the benefit of hindsight, we can see what followed in the 2002 midterms, when the Republicans won by a landslide? And the 2004 repeat of the same? The Virginia governor race in 2001 did not predict that. It seems to me that for the last 30 years, Virginians have been contrarians, voting exactly opposite the presidential winner from the year before. Virginia elected Democrats in ’81, ’85, ’89, Republican in ’93 and ’97, Democrats in ’01 and ’05, and so it would follow that the answer in ’09 is certainly not fourty-two. What does this mean? Either Virginians have taken issue with each of our presidents for the last 8 election cycles and deliberately voted for the candidate from the opposite party in the following year, or there’s just some state-level things going on that can’t be explained through the lens of a referendum witch-hunt.
In neither the case of New Jersey or Virginia are we able to come to the conclusion that this was somehow a referendum on the sitting president, or the majority party. But beating it to death sure makes a GREAT television storyline, no?
But the best storylines are those you can’t make up. And so we come to what I would argue is the only referendum that actually took place last night, and that is the circus of the New York 23rd district US House special election race. Yes, the US House, as in, the federal government, as in, the only government currently being operated by Barack Obama and the Democratic congress that America is allegedly “fed up” with… yes, this was the only national race taking place last night. And it did not follow the example of New Jersey and Virginia.
A quick review: the New York 23rd district is in upstate New York. The seat was formerly held by Republican John McHugh, who resigned earlier this year to become President Obama’s Secretary of the Army, making last night’s special election necessary. Facing off for the seat would be Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens. A fairly unexciting race, until leading national Republicans, apparently after consuming too much tea at this year’s tea-party protests, began tripping over themselves to endorse the third-party, outside-the-district, local-issue-ignorant candidate named Doug Hoffman, holding him up as the “true conservative” in the race.
And by “leading national Republicans”, I’m talking about Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Fred Thompson, Dick Armey, Michele Bachmann, Bill Kristol, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum… folks like that who are fairly heavy-hitters for the new Republican party.
So it’d be hard as the Republican to run when the soul of your party is opposed to you, accusing you of being “too liberal.” And it was. Scozzafava dropped out of the race on the Saturday before the election, and threw her support to the Democrat.
Wait, what?
Yes. Such was the ideological insanity from within her own party that she threw her support to her Democratic opponent. Such is the ideological insanity of the conservative wing of the Republican party that they are now sacrificing their own candidates for the sake of ideological purity. That’s scary.
Oh, and the other scary thing: the New York 23rd district hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since 1852. One-hundred and fifty-seven years.
So after all this cleansing, all this talk of who’s a “real conservative” and generally making things ridiculous, we go to a vote.
And the Democrat wins. For the first time since 1852.
So, by no means am I saying that the Democrats are a lock for more success next year. Quite the contrary, they’ve got their work cut out for them, and may still lose ground if they don’t stop dragging their feet with futile attempts to kowtow to their ideological antitheses in the name of “bipartisanship.”
But the only one of last night’s elections that had any real bearing on the future of the conservative ideology turned into an embarrassment for the Republicans pushing it. Regardless of state-level wins, the national Republican party is still a mess, remains woefully out-of-touch with America, and enjoys a 36% favorable opinion, while the Democrats find themselves at a not-too-shabby 53%.
Chin up!
Some years ago I absorbed this information from a now-long-forgotten source: The reason that we will likely never see an AI-style robot uprising is that human intelligence differs from artificial intelligence in one specific and significant way. Human beings think, in large part, using analogy. This means that we absorb data from one event, tweak it in our minds appropriately and apply it to other situations. Pretty basic, if you think about it, which I guess is kinda the point.
My now-delayed reaction to the #amazonfail flap 